Maduro's fall sparks suspicion of betrayal inside Venezuela's ruling elite

As Americans woke up to news of U.S. military strikes on Venezuela and the capture and extraction of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, questions are being asked whether Maduro was betrayed by someone from his secretive inner circle. 

That inner circle includes Diosdado Cabello, who holds the role of minister of interior, justice and peace, who is widely believed to be as powerful as Maduro.

Another member of that inner circle is Vladimir Padrino López, the longstanding head of the nation's Armed Forces, who wields enormous power. Both Cabello and Padrino López quickly condemned U.S. actions, but their responses so far have rung hollow.

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Cabello now stands as the undisputed heir to the Chavista movement, with López and the nation's military muscle seemingly in lockstep, yet the Venezuelan Armed Forces seemingly put up no resistance of any kind to the operation.

In an early morning video shared on X, López lambasted the "criminal military aggression by the government of the United States…coming to strike with their missiles and rockets fired from combat helicopters in Fuerte Tuna, Caracas, and the states of Mirana, Aragua, and La Guaira."

He repeated decades-old Hugo Chavez talking points, stating, "Venezuela rejects with all its strength the presence of these foreign troops which have only brought death, pain and destruction. This invasion represents the greatest tragedy that the country has suffered, which is motivated by an insatiable greed for our strategic resources."

With a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head, considerable domestic unpopularity and the disputed 2024 election that the international community widely discredited as stolen, the writing appeared on the wall for Nicolás Maduro for years.

Now, Maduro and Flores are reportedly guests of the United States government on the warship Iwo Jima, bound for New York to face what is likely to be the trial of the decade. Maduro is facing weapons and drug charges.

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The Venezuelan head of the Economic Inclusion Group, Jorge Jraissati, lauded the operation.

"If everything goes well, this could open a new era of peace in Venezuela," he said. "For too long, Maduro has been a cancer for Venezuela and the region. It has turned Venezuela into an authoritarian state. … This would not have happened if Maduro had accepted his defeat in 2024. He should have left power peacefully."

Yet, experts are wondering how the operation was undertaken so smoothly without some level of complicity on the part of the Venezuelan regime.

Jraissati argued, "Trump's ability to take Maduro quickly is an indicator that the U.S. had great intelligence on the ground. It shows that Venezuelans were actively cooperating with the Americans. It's a huge win for the U.S.

"Trump's operation is not against the Venezuelan people; it is against those who oppress us. Against Maduro and his crooks, who turn our country into a humanitarian crisis."

Delcy Rodriguez, the nation's vice president and presumptive successor to Maduro, demanded a "proof of life" of Maduro on X and is now the subject of intense speculation as to her whereabouts. Reports say she is in Russia, but Moscow has denied this. 

Taking out Maduro without taking out the rest of the Chavista power structure could prove problematic. Cabello and Padrino López would be unlikely to preside over democratic elections that they would likely lose. In such a scenario, they could put themselves and their fortunes at considerable risk.

Analysts will now be assessing who potentially was involved in the operation to capture Maduro, as well as whether Cabello or Padrino López or members of the Venezuelan military were involved, with reports of an entrenched CIA asset reporting on the whereabouts of Maduro.

As the future of Venezuela remains very much in doubt, Venezuelans scrambled to stock up on food and fuel. 

With Delcy Rodriguez as the de jure head of state, there is going to be an inevitable power struggle with Maria Corina Machado, recent winner of the Nobel Prize. It is widely believed that, in any kind of free and fair election, she would win in a landslide. However, her whereabouts are unknown since she left Norway in mid-December after receiving her award.

Venezuela experts know one thing: The Chavista movement will not go gently into the Caracas night.

Cabello, Padrino López and other regime loyalists may stay to fight to the end, or they may seek to negotiate an exit to Havana and Moscow, the most logical choices.